NFL 2020 Off season

Rather surprised at the lack of confidence being shown in the Bucs, but...all the more fun proving wrong the naysayers.

Tampa added a really good tackle in the first round, Iowa's Tristan Wirfs. Gronk is not done, OJ Howard (assuming he stays) is another fine TE, and Brady will not only have the two stellar receivers, but he will be running the offense and playing loose for probably the first time in his career. I do hope for some serious battles, though; Brady and Brees in the NFC Championship before one or both retire is a dream scenario.

Meanwhile, the Pats did what the Pats do, and traded out of the first round. I'm hoping they ultimately pick Jalen Hurts. I've heard there's interest, but he doesn't fit the Patriot offense as I know it. He's a great young QB, though; he'll surprise everyone if he gets a chance.

Tackle is the one gaping hole on the Buccaneers O-Line. A rookie is about the worst way to fill it, no matter how good he is. Ariens has three guys who are about league-average and a center who is Pro Bowl materiel. He's also very thin beyond that. Oh, and in the Second Round they took a Safety. The RB they took with the 12th pick of the Third Round looks like a step in the right direction. Ke'Shawn Vaughn, 5'9 210 lbs, out of Vandy.

Not sure what to make of the Patriots here. Trade out of the First Round and their first pick is a Safety from a D II school nobody every heard of. Was named Best Defensive Player in D II, D III, and NAIA last year, but he was a sixth-year Senior so he was basically two years older than everyone else out there.

I think it's intended to send a message that the Pats organization is going to try re-investing merchandising-sales revenues in building a bigger, wider, and deeper corporate scouting structure.

There are a lot of bobbing heads talking sideways about Seattle's first pick, too, although i also am hearing some respect for the kid's potential *cough cough*

The Saints did well in the first round for all i know, the guy looks the shit so far. I think the NO scouts are pretty good, no real draft busts in recent memory.

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In my personal opinion, TBC's trash talk about the Bucs is valid. But pro football can be an unpredictable animal, and it's not like the NBA where two or three players can start pulling deep odds. Part of the problem with the Patriots, which was an even bigger part of their genius, was the apparent unconcern of point spreads (except in predictably close games, of course); after all, who doesn't like a sure thing?

His Royal Dorkness wrote:

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In my personal opinion, TBC's trash talk about the Bucs is valid. But pro football can be an unpredictable animal, and it's not like the NBA where two or three players can start pulling deep odds. Part of the problem with the Patriots, which was an even bigger part of their genius, was the apparent unconcern of point spreads (except in predictably close games, of course); after all, who doesn't like a sure thing?

Honestly, I was not trying to trash talk. I was looking to make a fair assessment. Tampa Bay was mediocre at best last season. The idea that replacing Winston, who was struggling with consistency but just getting to the point where he should have become a confident starting quarterback but had to learn a new system under a new coach, with Brady, who has been beneficiary of perhaps the ultimate "system" for his entire career, and then throwing in his favorite receiving target for kicks is going to somehow transform the team into a Super Bowl contender is horse shit. To make matters worse, they lost a 1000 yd rusher (Freeman) to Free Agency and replaced him with a RB who has not been effective due to nagging injuries since the end of the 2018 regular season (Gurley). Brady's good, but not that good.

ETA: Here's what Mel Kiper had to say about Jordyn Brooks when he included the Seahawks in his "Winners from Day 1 of the Draft":

I really wanted to squeeze Brooks into my final mock draft, but I didn't quite pull the trigger. There are several teams around the league that really liked him. At 6-foot and 240 pounds, he is a tackling machine and a potential difference-maker for a Seahawks defense that needs to reload in the front seven. Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright are getting up there in age.

Is that good enough to make you shut out the people talking out the sides of their necks? If Joey Barton and Ben Burr-Kirven continue to develop then they along with Brooks could become the new "Killer B's" LB Corps when Bobby and KJ retire.

I think your points about the Bucs are fair, trash talk or not.

And yeah, Kiper is a considerably better analyst than most. I don't watch much collegiate ball, i did a little digging around and the scuttlebutt i found on Brooks is: versatile defensive back, who's highly effective against run plays, can hunt short slot routes, and does well at dropping back into zone pattern plays. I don't understand why i've seen so many "draft analysts" scratching their heads over this, Seattle has done well utilizing versatile defensive backs in the past.

I guess there are people who just want their pre-draft prediction boards to be right, but it seems like there are also "analysts" who refuse to attempt any understanding of franchises whose player acquisition doctrine varies at all from the league norm, and i read one whose response to the Seahawks's first-round selection was at least comparatively honest about his own confusion, "[Not what I would have done, maybe could have had him in a later round or trade, but not a bad player.] Stay weird, Seattle!"

I'm curious about my own speculation about the Pats expansion of their scouting network. The Yankees did exactly what i mentioned, using merchandising revenues, and it became a model for other MLB franchises with solid merchandising revenues. It would look a lot different in US-style Football though, because Baseball scouting has to be global to be truly effective. MLB focused on extending and upgrading scouting networks in the Caribbean, Japan, Taiwan, Latin America, China and even into Rounders and Cricket leagues in Europe, India, and Africa. To bring a similar revolution to player acquisition approaches in US Football, i think it would be more about getting eyes into the D-II, the D-III, and maybe even go back to scouting young players who're still in HS.

I don't think for a second that the NFL would nor should even consider letting teenagers play at the NFL level, but i think it could potentially provide invaluable insights into the athlete as a person (will they be a good fit for your franchise's corporate "personality?") and into how they've developed athletically, which can help guide expectations and approaches to guiding further athletic direction. Am i being ridiculous with the idea of Pro Scouts hitting HS games as a regular thing? Maybe. But D-II and even D-III, i think probably not.

Milton College was an NAIA school. Just saying.

It does kinda beg the question of whether using a draft pick at all was necessary, much less their first available pick. Maybe an invitation to work out for the team? That's still a thing, right? I hear that there are later rounds in the draft, as well - i know that the number of rounds has varied over the years, but i'm pretty sure there were at least 6 rounds the year they drafted Tom Brady. Idk, though, i don't follow college ball nor the draft closely. Were there other interested parties, and/or is there any evidence that other teams might've pulled the trigger? Was the 6th year senior from an NAIA school highly scouted?

The more i think about it, the more it seems like New England will be fine and Brady will struggle. The Bills might have enough to win the division this year, maybe be in the running for a few years. But the Pats are only a year and a half removed from their last championship, and continue to have what is probably the greatest "system" in the modern pro game. Brady himself was a next man up, and i expect that there will be considerable culture shock when he and Gronk arrive in Tampa.

His Royal Dorkness wrote:

The more i think about it, the more it seems like New England will be fine and Brady will struggle.

The opposite is true. It has been easy to tell just when the Pats have been ready to overwhelm the league and when they've gone off track. In 2007 it was obvious they were going to dominate historically. It looked like they might at the beginning of last season, until the losses of Brown and Gordon demoralized the offense. In 2009, it was clear that sending Richard Seymour to the Raiders was one subtraction too many, as it was in 2005 when they sent Deion Branch to Seattle. They were poised to win the SB against the Eagles until BB made his career-biggest mistake and benched Malcolm Butler. They weren't going to win it after that. You get to know the moods of this team after awhile. There is a perfect balance between the iron glove and team morale, and there is a perfect balance between sensible roster management and excessive overhauling. When BB is on form, he knows the balance and they win in dynastic fashion; when he's off, it's a write-off year. The Pats are in a write-off year, mitigated a bit by the determination BB will have to prove himself sans TB12 (and Stidham's similar drive). But it won't be enough. They will regress.

Brady has the leash off, he has a nicely balanced new team, he has accommodating coaches, he is highly motivated himself, and he is still one great quarterback. Tampa wins that division hands down, and much more. We'll all exchange notes again on this come the postseason.

BTW, don't ask me why the Pats picked Kyle Dugger with their first pick of the draft. They don't really need a safety. BB was at the Senior Bowl and took a shine to him, probably due to his versatility. They'll play him; how well he'll do is hard to say (rooting for him, though).

As somebody who thinks you probably don't remember the name Lisa Olson, i think you might misunderstand what i mean when i post, "New England will be fine." I'm not talking about winning a championship (or even the division) this year. I'm talking long-term. As far as the Championship, both teams take long odds in my book, but i don't hand out short odds in the NFL, which might be part of why i don't run a book. But particularly long odds, even by my standards. There are at least a half-dozen better teams than either the Bucs or the Pats this coming year, but neither of them is out of the realm of possibility.

I was talking about realizing that some franchises in pro sports history have been focused on one individual, even into posterity, and that if the Patriots are going to go that way, it'll be over Belichick not Brady. Also, Brady seems to feel like he still has something to prove, as if all the smack talk about being a 6th round pick and "in a great system" ... "modern day Wally Pipp" have put an honest-to-gog chip on his shoulder, which it shouldn't've, but if he's planning to do a modernized version of The Brett Favre, he's off to the right start.

I know a lot of people are speculating on the which-is-more-important legacy of BB and TB12, but I don't go there. They both have had their roles to play. BB has made more mistakes than TB over the years, but TB learned everything he knows about the game from BB, which led to the Pats dynasty, and which will further affect things in Tampa. I do believe each of them wants to prove he can succeed without the other, and they probably can, but it's like Astaire and Rogers--they can dance with other partners, but they're better together. Long and short, they will both be driven to succeed this season, and TB will go a little further, because he has the better team.

I see it a little more like David Robinson and Gregg Popovich. But you can research that history on your own if you wish, and i freely admit it's still speculation at this point anyway.

Brady may have a better team this year, but he also doesn't have Miami and The Jets as divisional rivals, and for most of his career the Bills sucked too. In the middle of the 2019 summer, the Saints may have been favored, but any team except the Bucs could have taken the NFC South and every oddsmaker knew it.

There's nothing wrong with loving the Pats and Brady too, and hopefully (and very likely) you won't have to choose between those loyalties. But Brady's days are numbered far shorter than the Patriots, even if Belichick starts to falter.

Jameis Winston has joined the Saints' locker room to fill the gap left by the departure of Teddy Bridgewater, about which Saints fans have such mixed emotions. Winston has signed a one-yr, $1.1M deal that has a lot of analysts stunned, but i think i can understand why such a deal appeals to both sides. For the Saints, Winston is neither suited to become a long-term backup nor to be groomed as a successor to Brees, and $1.1M for a year with a backup who's widely considered "starter quality" is a deal. For Winston, it's not a lot of money, but it's not nothing, it lets him be a Free Agent at the end of the year, and he's with a team that offers a chance to be a part of a championship, and that's something that for a lot of players offers more added value than extra $$$'s or a chance to start a QB controversy.

Assuming Taysom Hill is your starting QB next year, I can see Winston sticking around and being what Bridgewater was: a starting-caliber QB who'd been written off as a starter, waited for his opportunity, and re-proved himself coming off the bench. Winston needs to sit and learn a little bit while providing a little competition for Hill in the '21 camp; he probably won't see the field this year, but NO is a good fit for him if he's patient.

This isn't as surprising a signing as Dalton in Dallas or Love in GB. I love the Cowboys' move; Dak has got no leverage left in his quest for highest dollar anymore--I'd rescind his tag and see what ensues.

Love will be the Packers' QB next year if not sooner. Rodgers is the easily-slighted type.

I feel it could do Dak good to get his butt sat. He really hasn't developed as an NFL QB as much as he should have.

As for the Packers, LeBlanc is going to be in a quandary over the offense. Rodgers has been declining so LeBlanc has taken out things Rodgers can not do anymore and left in the stuff that he's very good at. The problem is that Love can not yet do the things that Rodgers is good at and the things that Love is good at are things that have been taken out in difference to the old geezer. Incompatible skill sets. Put Love in the "Rodgers Offense" and he's going to suck. Have the team working on two different offenses and they will do both poorly. Kick Rodgers to the curb and Packer nation will hate you for a season or so. longer if Love fails to pan out, but the rest of football-loving America will thank you.

an interesting article...

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/05/04/nfl-schedule-release-season-fmia-peter-king/?cid=eref:nbcnews:text

i think a mix of flexibility and rigidity are the key points.

Big developments in New England, with the Pats signing former MVP Cam Newton to a one-year deal that could pay close to the league minimum if none of the incentives are met. It amazes me that this news is breaking the same day as the league hands down the most recent penalties for the franchise's continuing violations videotaping other teams' sidelines.

The fines probably don't mean much, but the yellow card has been delivered in the form of a 3rd round pick in next year's draft. The Pats have a history of getting a lot out of their picks in those later rounds. How many times has this franchise been penalized for the same thing, though? At some point it seems like something has to give.

As regards the split between Belichick and Brady, I can't help rooting for the coach, and landing Newton on the cheap seems like a great move. Hopefully Cam can sideline his personality well enough and long enough to keep The Hoodie happy. But i'd still like to see the Bills win the AFC East this year.

I've seen in other places that some people are saying that the NFL is whistling past a graveyard right now and that the entire season is going to wind up having to be cancelled. There are definitely some horrifying possibilities for the rest of this year that could make that happen, but personally i'm glad that the pro sports leagues are trying to think positively.

66 players have opted out of the upcoming season, including 31 linemen, 20 of whom are OLs. The Patriots have lost the most, including 4 defensive starters including half their starting backfield. It's not difficult to understand why these guys feel the need to opt out, especially all the linemen.

This has been an unbelievable offseason, i'm a bit surprised we haven't had more people posting opinions. I don't know how anybody can condemn a player for opting out, all things considered. IMO, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought further pressure to the one thing the NFL has consistently neglected throughout its lifetime: player safety. They've never prioritized it, and now that they're in a situation where it needs to be prioritized for practical and profit driven reasons, they don't know how. We might actually see replacement players for the first time since the strike. Keanu Reeves even Tweeted that he wants the ball LOL.

Keanu Reeves and his time machine.

I have no quarrel with players opting out. Life matters more than money and fans.

I can't fault some players for opting out either, especially those Patriots guys whose other option would be playing on a team with either Brisset or Newton as the starting QB.

I cannot believe I am starting an NFL season rooting for Cam Newton and NOT Tom Brady. My son has known no other Pats QB in his 16 years on this planet.

I'm sure everyone is rejoicing in the E.O.D. (End of Dynasty), but this is Bill's new challenge. I am certainly interested in seeing what develops.

As far as Tommy boy, he's going to miss the O line and those short drop schemes. Those deep drops can leave you exposed, and we know how much he loves getting hit (like any QB actually loves it).

I know some Pats fans who were upset with Tom, upset with Bill. I say, let him dip his toe in another pool, there's no harm in it. He gave it his all, and did it with a coach who wouldn't stroke his ego.

My problem is with Gronk. You could have played last year, man? Dead to me.

Hi Soup. So good to hear from you. I am very surprised BB went with Newton. A flashy, running QB is just not the Patriot style. I don't see how he will fit into the usual offense unless it is really overhauled; but maybe this is the challenge Bill wants. As for Tom, I think he made the right move. He needed weapons, and input, and he wasn't getting either in his last two seasons here. I fully expect him to tear up the league in Tampa. I hear a lot of similar sympathies to yours regarding Gronk, but he's a big puppy of a man and at this stage of his career, wanted petted instead of driven. I'm frankly glad to be able to see him play again, anywhere.

Wow, what a Super Bowl it would be if NE and TB met...one for the ages.

Glad to see you signed up for the pick 'ems...I have a new strategy this year and I want to say I beat more than just six other players.

The fact that Gronk took last year off might be the single biggest factor in his decision to try to play this year.